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Monday Lunch Seminars Marco Airaudo

"Optimal monetary policy with counter-cyclical credit spreads" Abstract We study the consequences for monetary policy design of including deep habits in credit markets into the benchmark New-Keynesian DSGE model. Under deep habits, monopolistically competitive banks set lending rates in a forward-looking fashion: they internalize the fact that, due to habits in banking (which are meant…

Seminars in Economics Dan Black (Univ Chicago)

"Duke Grads, Monkeys, and Jobs and Wall Street: The Use and Misuse of Latent Variables" abstract We consider common Item Response Theory (IRT) measures of latent variables and consider their use as independent variables in regression analysis. We show that because of the inherent measurement error in the construction of IRT scores that OLS estimates…

Monday Lunch Seminars Jordi Vidal-Robert (University of Warwick)

"Habemus papam? Polarization and conflict in the Papal States" abstract Does increased disagreement among members of an elite translate into more conflict? Divisions among the elite might weaken the central authority, lowering its ability to suffocate revolts. In this paper we study the effect of division within elite groups on the probability of internal conflicts…

Seminars in Statistics Andrés Felipe Barrientos (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

Bayesian density estimation for compositional data using random Bernstein polynomials We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model for single density estimation, for data in the p-dimensional simplex space, say S_p. The proposal is based on a particular class of multivariate Bernstein polynomials on S_p and extends the Dirichlet-Bernstein prior for density estimation, for data in a closed,…

Seminars in Statistics Peter Müller (University of Texas at Austin)

A Nonparametric Bayesian Model for Local Clustering We propose a nonparametric Bayesian local clustering (NoB-LoC) approach for heterogeneous data. Using genomics data as an example, the NoB-LoC clusters genes into gene sets and simultaneously creates multiple partitions of samples, one for each gene set. In other words, the sample partitions are nested within the gene sets. Inference is guided by…

Monday Lunch Seminars Filippo Taddei

"International Capital Flows, Financial Frictions and Welfare" abstract The connection between the financial crisis of 2007-08 and global imbalances is controversial. We argue that the main reason why the relationship may be in place is due to the existence of financial frictions in domestic credit markets. We rationalize this point of view by developing a…

Seminars in Politics and Society Daniel Lichter (Cornell University)

"At the Starting Line: Rural Poverty and Inequality among Hispanic Newborns" Abstract The recent movement of Hispanics into rural immigrant destinations has sometimes deflected attention from another major source of rural population growth – fertility. High rates of Hispanic fertility raise an important question: Do Hispanic newborn babies start life’s race behind the starting line,…