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Seminars in Statistics Yee Whye Teh (University College London)

Efficient MCMC for Continuous Time Discrete State Systems A variety of phenomena are best described using dynamical models whichoperate on a discrete state space and in continuous time. Examplesinclude Markov jump processes, continuous time Bayesian networks,renewal processes and other point processes, with applications rangingfrom systems biology, neuroscience, genetics, computing networks andhuman-computer interactions. Posterior computations typically…

Mogens Steffensen (University of Copenaghen)

"On the Theory of Continuous-Time Recursive Utility" abstract We establish a connection between continuous-time recursive utility and the notion of consistency studied, in particular, in connection with the non-linear objective mean-variance. We propose a time-global optimization problem and show that the optimal time-consistent solution to this time-global problem is closely related to the standard recursive utility solution which is defined…

Seminars in Economics Asen Kochov (Bonn Graduate School of Economics)

"A Definition of Unforeseen Contingencies" Abstract The paper proposes a choice-theoretic definition of unforeseen contingencies. It is proved that if preference admits a recursive utility representation all contingencies are necessarily foreseen. The paper proceeds axiomatically to develop a nonrecursive model of choice in which some events might be initially unforeseen. The process of updating implied…

Monday Lunch Seminars Michael Rapp (Australian National University)

"Instability of Informed Coordination" (Note: the seminar is on Tuesday) Abstract When agents use observational learning to learn about the fundamentals of a coordination game, there are multiple equilibria. In some equilibria information is efficiently transmitted through observational learning, while in others private information is disregarded entirely. Investigating the stability of these equilibria in a stochastic…

Seminars in Statistics Andrés Christen (CIMAT, México)

Towards Uncertainty Quantification and Inference in the stochastic SIR Epidemic Model We introduce a novel method to conduct inference with models defined through a continuous-time Markov process, and we apply these results to a classical stochastic SIR model as a case study. We obtain approximations for first and second moments for the state variables. These…

Monday Lunch Seminars Vincenzo Merella (Università di Cagliari)

"Sectoral Shocks and Asset Pricing: The Role of Consumer Confidence" (Note: the seminar is on Wednesday) Abstract This paper proposes a theory for the observed relationship between consumer confidence and consumption growth. The idea is thatindicators of confidence identify information on the structure of consumer spending that is not contained in other data. We construct amultisectoral…

Seminars in Economics Thomas Mariotti (Toulouse School of Economics)

"Non-Exclusive Competitionunder Adverse Selection" Abstract A seller of a divisible good faces several identical buyers. The quality of the good may be low or high, and is the seller's private information. The seller has strictly convex preferences that satisfy a single-crossing condition. Buyers compete by posting menus of non-exclusive contracts, so that the seller can…

Seminars in Economics Francesco Nava (London School of Economics)

"Efficiency in Repeated Two-Action Games with Local Monitoring" ASTRACT The paper discusses community enforcement in infinitely repeated two-action games with local monitoring. Each player interacts with and observes only a fixed set of partners, of whom he is privately informed. The main result shows that for generic beliefs efficiency can be sustained in a sequential equilibrium in which strategies are…

Monday Lunch Seminars Jim Raymo (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

Educational Differences in Early Childbearing: A Cross-national Comparative Study Abstract: This cross-national comparative study describes relationships between women’s socioeconomic status and early age at first childbirth and seeks to lay an empirical foundation for further research on the ways in which these relationships are shaped by national context.  To this end, we describe differences in early childbearing with respect to both…

Seminars in Economics Ugo Panizza (UN Conference on Trade and Development)

"Too Much Finance?" AbstractThis paper examines whether there is a threshold above which financial development no longer has a positive effect on economic growth. We develop a simple model in which the expectation of a bailout may lead to a financial sector which is too large with respect to the social optimum. We then use…

Seminars in Economics Shachar Kariv (University of California, Berkeley)

“Who is (More) Rational?” Abstract Revealed preference theory offers a criterion for decision-makingquality: if decisions are high quality then there exists a utility functionthat the choices maximize. We conduct a large-scale field experimentthat enables us to test for consistency with utility maximization. Wefind that high-income and high-education subjects display greater levels of consistency than low-income…

Collegio Aperto Collegio aperto: Alejandro Portes (Princeton University)

Cavour Lectures "Migration and Social Change" "Migrazioni e cambiamenti sociali, quali effetti possibili?" Introduction by Maurizio Ambrosini (University of Milano) Lecture Video Alejandro Portes, rinomato sociologo, ha contribuito allo sviluppo degli studi sulle migrazioni e sull'urbanizzazione, è stato il Direttore del Dipartimento di Sociologia dell'Univerista' di Princeton, dove e' ora Howard Harrison e Gabrielle Snyder Beck Professor…

Monday Lunch Seminars Levon Barseghyan (Cornell)

"The Nature of Risk Preferences: Evidence from Insurance Choices" (Note: the seminar is on Wednesday) Abstract:      We use data on insurance deductible choices to estimate a structural model of risky choice that permits "standard" risk aversion, loss aversion, and probability weighting. We show that loss aversion and probability weighting - though not separately identified without strong…