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Monday Lunch Seminars Giovanni Mastrobuoni (Collegio Carlo Alberto)

"Crime is Terribly Revealing: An Evaluation of Predictive Policing" abstract An increasing number of police departments around the world are trying to use predictive policing as a way to improve clearance rates at times of shrinking budgets. The police department of Milan has been working on a software that predicts future crime since 2008. This…

Seminars in Economics Bill Sandholm (University of Wisconsin, Madison)

"Sampling Best Response Dynamics and Deterministic Equilibrium Selection" Abstract We consider a model of evolution in games in which a revising agent observes the actions of a random number of randomly sampled opponents and then chooses a best response to the distribution of actions in the sample. We provide a condition on the distribution of…

Seminars in Statistics David Knowles (University of Cambridge)

Diffusion trees as priors The Dirichlet diffusion tree has attractive theoretical properties and empirical performance on various tasks. We present an extension which removes the restriction to binary trees allowing arbitrary branching structure, the Pitman Yor diffusion tree. We show this process is exchangeable and projective. Both the DDT and PYDT can be constructed as…

Seminars in Economics Roman Inderst (Goethe University Frankfurt)

"Preserving Debt or Equity Capacity?" abstract In a dynamic model of optimal security design, we show when firms should preserve "equity capacity" through choosing high target leverage or "debt capacity" through choosing low target leverage. Thereby, firms reduce a problem of underinvestment or overinvestment when they must raise future financing under asymmetric information. Which problem…

Seminars in Economics Giovanni Peri (University of California, Davis)

"The Effect of International Trade and Migration on Income" abstract This paper explores the relationship between economic openness and income per person using crosscountry data. To address endogeneity concerns we extend the instrumental-variables strategy first usedby Frankel and Romer (1999). First, we show that geographic characteristics, relative to the location of acountry are successful in…

Monday Lunch Seminars Paolo Buonanno (University of Bergamo)

"On the Historical and Geographic Origins of the Sicilian Mafia" Abstract     This research attempts to explain the large differences in the early diffusion of the mafia across different areas of Sicily. We advance the hypothesis that, after the demise of Sicilian feudalism, the lack of publicly provided property-right protection from widespread banditry favored the development…

Seminars in Economics Andrew Chesher (University College London)

"Structural Econometrics with Discrete Outcomes" abstract Discrete outcomes are ubiquitous in econometrics. Much information about human behaviour in response to economic stimuli and motivations is provided by data recording variously: choices amongst discrete, ordered or unordered alternatives, attitudes, preferences and strengths of response recorded on ordinal scales, counts of occurrences of events, and so forth.…