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Monday Lunch Seminars Toru Kitagawa (UCL)

"A Test for Instrument Validity" Abstract This paper develops a specification test for instrument validity in the heterogeneous treatment effect model with a binary treatment and a discrete instrument. The strongest testable implication for instrument validity is given by the condition for non-negativity of point- identifiable complier’s outcome densities. Our specification test infers this testable…

Seminars in Statistics Piotr Zwiernik (University of Genova)

Maximum likelihood estimation for linear Gaussian covariance Models We study parameter estimation in linear Gaussian covariance models, which are p-dimensional Gaussian models with linear constraints on the covariance matrix. Maximum likelihood estimation for this class of models leads to a non-convex optimization problem which typically has many local optima. We prove that the log-likelihood function…

Seminars in Statistics Luigi Malagò (Shinshu University, Japan)

Information geometry of the Gaussian distribution in view of stochastic optimization: first and second order geometry We study the optimization of a continuous function by its stochastic relaxation, i.e., the optimization of the expected value of the function itself with respect to a density in a statistical model. In the first part of the talk…

Seminars in Politics and Society Rinke Bax (European Central Bank)

"The European Central Bank’s role in the Single Supervisory Mechanism as part of the Banking Union" Abstract On 4 November 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) took up its supervisory tasks as part of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM). The presentation will focus on the ECB’s role in the SSM and the exercise of its supervisory…

Thorsten Beck (Cass Business School, London)

"Informality and Access to Finance: Evidence from India" Abstract This paper gauges the effect of financial deepening and bank outreach on informality using micro data from the Indian manufacturing sector and exploiting cross-industry variation in the need for external finance. We distinguish between two channels through which access to finance can reduce informality: reducing the…

Seminars in Statistics Alessandro Arlotto (Duke University)

Sequential decisions, time dependence, and central limit theorems We prove a central limit theorem for the sum of functions of (1+m)-dimensional vectors from a time non-homogeneous Markov chain and we show several examples in which this central limit theorem can be used to easily establish the asymptotic normality of the optimal total reward of finite…

Seminars in Politics and Society Etienne Ollion (University de Strasbourg – CNRS)

"The Superiority of Economists" AbstractIn this essay, we investigate the dominant position of economics within the network of the social sciences in the United States. We begin by documenting the relative insularity of economics, using bibliometric data. Next we analyze the tight management of the field from the top down, which gives economics its characteristic hierarchical structure. Economists also…