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Monday Lunch Seminars Daniele Pennesi

"Asset prices in an ambiguous economy" abstract We price assets with ambiguous returns in a Lucas’ tree economy under general ambiguity sensitive inter-temporal utility. We provide intuitive conditions to guarantee existence and to characterize equilibria. Although we relax ambiguity aversion,portfolio inertia and excess volatility may obtain at the equilibrium, extending the results of Epstein and…

Seminars in Politics and Society Steffen Heinrich (University of Duisburg Essen)

"The employment-pension nexus in Coordinated Market Economies: a Comparative Study of Germany and Japan since 2001" abstract This presentation analyses the implications of the pension reforms for employment relationships and HR policies in the two prime examples of coordinated market economies (CME), Germany and Japan, in the past 10 years.  While studies of recent public…

Seminars in Economics Kota Saito (Caltech)

"Savage in the Market" Download program Abstract We develop a behavioral axiomatic characterization of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) under risk aversion. Given is an individual agent's behavior in the market: assume a finite collection of asset purchases with corresponding prices. We show that such behavior satisfies a revealed preference axiom if and only if there exists a…

Seminars in Economics Stefano Gagliarducci (Università di Roma Tor Vergata)

"The Labor Market Returns to Political Connections" abstract In this paper we document the labor market returns to being a family member of a politician in office. To this purpose, we link data for 16 years on the universe of politicians in Italy with a 1/91 random sample of private sector employees, based on the…

Monday Lunch Seminars Gerardo Ferrara

"Portfolio Optimization under Model Uncertainty" abstract This study proposes a novel methodology to deal with model uncertainty in forecasting stock returns. My main interest here is to overcome thetendency of Bayesian Model Averaging to give all of the weight to a single model. A potential solution of this problem is to capture thenature of the underlying data…

Seminars in Statistics François Caron (University of Oxford)

A Bayesian nonparametric model for undirected and multi-edges networks In this talk, I will present ongoing work on a Bayesian nonparametric specification for either undirected or multi-edge directed networks, building on the framework of completely random measures. The formulation allows for an unbounded number of nodes in the network, while encouraging a sparse set of…

Monday Lunch Seminars Michela Altieri

"Group Affiliation, Implicit Guarantees and the Cost of Borrowing" abstract This paper investigates the effect of group affiliation on credit spreads of firm’s public debt. We analyse all the firms issuing publicdebt on the US Primary and Secondary market from 1980 until 2006, by comparing business groups and independent firms new issuances. Theresults show that controlled firms…

Seminars in Politics and Society Nicole Scicluna

"Politicization without democratization: The impact of the Eurozone crisis on EU constitutionalism" abstract The paper will demonstrate how the European integration process overburdened EU law in an attempt to overcome political deficiencies, with negative consequences for the Union’s democratic legitimacy. The analysis is framed by the ‘twin crises’ of twenty-first century EU constitutionalism: the defeat…

Christian Gollier (IDEI and Toulouse School of Economics)

"Evaluation of long-dated investments under uncertain growth trend, volatility and catastrophes" Abstract In this paper, we examine the term structures of interest rates and risk premia when the random walk of economic growth is affected by some parametric uncertainty. Using a time-consistent expected utility framework, we show that parametric uncertainty does not affect assets prices of…

Seminars in Economics CANCELLED: Georg Weizsacker (Humboldt-Universität Berlin)

"An Experiment on Social Mislearning" abstract We investigate theories of social learning in two experiments based on simple arithmetic that isolate errors in inference from those in Bayesian updating.  In the first experiment, players move one-person-per-period and observe all predecessors’ actions. Although 75% of participants adhere to BNE in this experiment, they realize less than one-fifth of the payoff gains…

Monday Lunch Seminars Andrei Savochkin

“Mistake Aversion and a Theory of Robust Decision Making” Download the paper Abstract This paper studies the behavioral trait of aversion to making mistakes in the framework of choice under subjective uncertainty, assuming that the probabilities of outcomes are not exogenously specified. The decision procedure that is proposed to capture mistake aversion follows the general…

Seminars in Politics and Society Angela Garcia Calvo

"Upgrading in Spain: an institutional perspective" abstract This paper summarises the main contributions of a book manuscript that aimed to explain the recent rise of Spain’s firms in complex service sectors, and the parallel fall in capital and skill intensive manufacturing sectors through the analysis of the institutional structure that enabled it. I argued that…

Seminars in Economics of Innovation and Knowledge Cristina Rossi (Politecnico di Milano)

"How the characteristics of entrepreneurial teams shape founders’ exit path: an empirical analysis of the Italian case" (at Dipartimento di Economia "S. Cognetti de Martiis") abstract This paper examines founders’ exit from entrepreneurial ventures. Specifically, we investigate the influence of the entrepreneurial team on two different exit paths, namely sale of firm shares to internal buyers and…