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Job Market Seminars Yikai Wang (University of Zurich)

"Will China Escape the Middle-income Trap? A Politico-economic Theory of Growth and State Capitalism" abstract Is China's rapid growth sustainable if the labor and capital market distortions persist? Will democratization occur given that Chinese middle-class are supportive of the regime? To answer the above questions, this paper proposes a politico-economic theory, as follows. In oligarchy,…

[Academic Events] CarloAlberto Outreach (past events) 3RD CARLO ALBERTO STOCHASTICS WORKSHOP

The "Carlo Alberto Stochastics Workshops" are a series of workshops held at Collegio Carlo Alberto as part of the "de Castro" Statistics Initiative. The 3rd edition will take place on January 10-11, 2014, and the meeting aims at presenting some of the latest advances on ALGEBRAIC STATISTICS. In the last fifteen years, the use of algebraic…

Seminars in Statistics Bas Kleijn (University of Amsterdam)

Testability and consistency Bayesian consistency theorems come in (at least) three distinct types, e.g. Doob's prior-almost-sure consistency on Polish spaces, Schwartz's Hellinger consistency with KL-priors and the `tailfree' weak consistency of Dirichlet posteriors. In this talk we ask the question how these notions of convergence are related and argue that one characterises them most conveniently…

Stephane Loisel (Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1)

"Ruin probability for some particular correlated claims, for worsening risks, and risks with infinite mean." Abstract We first give explicit formulas for the infinite time ruin probability for some particular correlated claim amounts or inter-arrival times. We then investigate asymptotics of ruin probabilities when claim distribution is worsening over time, due to phenomena like sectorial inflation…

Seminars in Economics of Innovation and Knowledge Ljubica Nedelkoska (Zeppelin University and Harvard University)

"Learning by Problem-solving" (at Dipartimento di Economia "S. Cognetti de Martiis") abstract We analyze the dynamics of learning by problem-solving at the job. We propose that the exposure to challenging job tasks increases skills and therefore work productivity. As a result, job complexity leads to higher wages. We test our hypotheses using a large panel of German…

Seminars in Economics Alessandra Voena (University of Chicago)

"Prenuptial Contracts, Labor Supply and Household Investments" Abstract This paper examines prenuptial contracts that allow couples in Italy to  choose, at virtually no cost, how their assets will be divided in case of divorce. Unique administrative data on marriages and divorces from 1995 to 2011 indicate that the majority of newlyweds (67% in 2011) choose…

Seminars in Statistics Li Ma (Duke University)

Adaptive testing of conditional association through recursive mixture modeling In many case-control studies, a central goal is to test for association or dependence between the predictors and the response. Relevant covariates must be conditioned on to avoid false positives and loss in power. Conditioning on covariates is easy in parametric frameworks such as the logistic…

Seminars in Statistics Yongdai Kim (Seoul National University)

Deviance Information Criteria for the frailty model We are concerned with model selection for the frailty model by use of the deviance information criterion (DIC). The DIC is a Bayesian model selection criterion proposed by Spiegelhalter et al. (2002).  A difficulty in applying the DIC to the frailty model lies on the unspecified baseline hazard…

Seminars in Economics of Innovation and Knowledge Dirk Czarnitzki (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)

"Counterfactual impact evaluation of cohesion policy at the firm level" Abstract The European Cohesion Policy is designed to reduce gaps between developmentlevels of EU regions. Consequently most scholarly research on impacts of Cohesion Policyso far focused on catching-up processes of EU regions. Newly available data, however,allow studying policy effects directly at the recipient level rather…

Seminars in Economics Toan Phan (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

"Toxic Asset Bubble" Abstract We show that toxic (i.e., welfare reducing) asset bubbles can emerge in a standard framework of stochastic rational bubble if there is financial friction. The friction generated by limited liability and non-contingent debt contracts prevents banks from fully internalizing the bubble's risk of collapse. Hence boom-bust episodes involving excessively risky bubbles can emerge in equilibrium. We…