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Monday Lunch Seminars Francesca Brusa (Temple University)

"Human Capital, Unemployment Risk, and Asset Prices" Abstract This paper relates the riskiness of human capital to uncertainty in the labour market and documents a role for unemployment as a determinant of human wealth. Starting from the labour market equilibrium outcome, I derive two unemployment-adjusted measures of labour income and rely on U.S. micro-level data…

Seminars in Politics and Society Alexandre Afonso (Univ. of Leiden, Netherlandes)

"Institutional Change in South European Labour Market Regimes After the Crisis" abstract This paper seeks to map and compare change in labour markets regimes in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece in the aftermath of the financial crisis. While the extent of austerity policies in terms of fiscal retrenchment in these countries has been the subject of much interest, we still…

Seminars in Economics of Innovation and Knowledge Ben Jones (Kellog School of Management, Northwestern University)

"The Reverse Matthew Effect: Catastrophe and Consequence in Scientific Teams" abstract Teamwork pervades modern economies, yet teamwork can make individual roles difficult to ascertain.  In the sciences, the canonical "Matthew Effect" suggests that eminent team members garner credit for great works at the expense of less eminent team members.  We study this phenomenon in reverse,…

Monday Lunch Seminars Cristian Bartolucci (Collegio Carlo Alberto)

"A Symmetric Model of Firms and Workers" Abstract In this paper we develop a model in which unemployed searchers may either encountera firm and be considered as a new employee or may generate a business idea in which case they begin their own firm. This is the first paper in which an equilibrium distribution of…

Seminars in Statistics Richard Nickl (University of Cambridge)

Nonparametric Bayesian inference for discretely sampled diffusions We consider the nonlinear statistical inverse problem ofmaking inference on the unknown parameters of a diffusion processdescribing the solution of a stochastic differential equation. Theobservation regime is such that the process is sampled at discretetime points that are a fixed distance apart, and we investigate theasymptotic regime when…

Seminars in Politics and Society Christoph Scherrer (Univ. of Kassel, Germany)

"The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP): Limiting Policy Space?" abstract The EU currently negotiates with the USA a comprehensive trade and investment agreement. The talk will provide a brief overview of the objectives, the differences between the trading partners, and the likely outcome of the negotiations. It will focus on the question to what…

Seminars in Politics and Society Armando Barrientos (University of Manchester)

"Social Assistance in Developing Countries: Progress, innovations, and challenges?" abstract Since the turn of the century, large-scale programmes providing regular and reliable direct transfers to households in poverty have mushroomed in in low- and middle-income countries. By 2010, conservative estimates indicate that around one billion people in low- and middle-income countries lived in households receiving…

Seminars in Economics Paolo Guasoni (Dublin City University)

"Healthcare and Consumption with Aging" Abstract Health-care benefits individuals by slowing the natural growth of mortality, indirectly increasing utility through consumption over a longer lifetime. This paper solves the problem of household dynamic healthcare, consumption, and saving when natural mortality grows exponentially to reflect the Gompertz' law, while both utility and health-care are isoelastic. The…

Monday Lunch Seminars Antonella Tolomeo (Collegio Carlo Alberto)

"Disentangling Overlapping Shocks in Portfolio Choices" abstract In a market where price shocks result from the sum of several mean-reverting shocks, this paper finds the optimal trading policies and their welfare for informed investors, who observe all individual shocks, and uninformed investors, who estimate them from the aggregate shock alone. All investors have constant relative…

Seminars in Statistics Laura Ventura (University of Padua)

Robust Approximate Bayesian Inference The likelihood function is the basis of both frequentist and Bayesian methods. However, the stability of likelihood-based procedures requires strict adherence to the model assumptions: mild deviations from the model can lead to misleading inferential results. A possible Bayesian solution to robustness is to use a of robust pseudo likelihood, such…