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Seminars in Statistics Alexandros Beskos (University College London)

SMC Samplers for Applications in High Dimensions Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are nowadays routinely applied in a variety of complex applications: hidden Markov models, dynamical systems, target tracking, control problems, just to name a few. Whereas SMC methods have been greatly refined in the last decades and are now much better understood, they are…

Seminars in Politics and Society Klaus Armingeon (Universität Bern)

"Choosing the Path of Austerity: How Policy Coalitions ShapeWelfare-policy Choices in Periods of Fiscal Consolidation" Abstract This paper focuses on the effect of fiscal adjustment programs on public social expenditures.We show that budget consolidations are generally associated with welfare state retrenchment.But do the partisan complexion and the type of government condition the extent to which…

Seminars in Economics Alp Atakan (Koc University Turkey)

"Market Selection and the Information Content of Prices" Abstract We study a market in which 2k identical and indivisible objects are allocated to z>2k bidders in two separate markets using uniform-price auctions. Before the auctions, each bidder receives an informative but imperfect signal about the state of the world and chooses one of the two…

Monday Lunch Seminars Alan Kirman (Université d’Aix-Marseille III)

"The Crisis in Economic Theory" abstract This presentation will suggest that we need an alternative approach to economic modeling in general, and macroeconomic modelling in particular, if we are to capture salient characteristics of recent economic developments. There has been an implicit acceptance of the idea that an economy in which individuals are left essentially to their own devices will…

Monday Lunch Seminars Suvi Vasama (Humboldt University of Berlin)

"Real Options and Dynamic Incentives" abstract We examine a dynamic principal-agent model in which the output is correlated over time. The optimal contract determines a payment schedule from the principal to the agent and a liquidation policy. Incentive compatibility, together with the agent’s limited liability, requires that the firm is liquidated following a history of low returns. With…

Seminars in Statistics Bartek Knapik (VU Amsterdam)

Convergence rates of posterior distributions in nonparametric inverse problems Since the seminal works of Ghosal, Ghosh and van der Vaart (2000) and Shen and Wasserman (2001), posterior contraction has attracted much attention, resulting in the rich literature on this subject. However, these results are not suitable to deal with trully ill-posed inverse problems, where one…

Seminars in Politics and Society Michael Tahlin (SOFI, Stockholm University)

 "Why is youth employment falling? A comparative analysis of skill matching and labor demand in Europe" abstract Youth employment has fallen in many countries in recent decades. How can this development be explained? Potentially important causes include economic recessions, long-term losses of labor demand, upgrading of job structures, educational expansion, and changes in skill matching…

Seminars in Economics Arnaud Dupuy (CEPS, INSTEAD)

"Migration in China: to Work or to Wed?" Abstract Why do people migrate? In this paper we study the trade-offs between migrating to work and migrating to wed. To this aim, we develop a marriage matching model in which men and women, are initially distributed over various locations, i.e. were born and raised in various…

Seminars in Politics and Society Olivier Thevenon (INED, Paris)

"Do “Institutional Complementaries” Foster Female Labour Force Participation?" Abstract I analyse the response of female labour force participation to policies supporting the work-life balance, with country-level data from the early 1980s for 18 OECD countries. It includes an original analysis of interactions and complementarity between different policy measures, as well as of potential variations in…

Occasional Seminars Allievi Program Defense Sessions October 2014

9.30 am Paolo BaudissoneTitle: Modeling autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity: an empirical application to exchange rates market 10.10 am De AndreaTitle: Income, Education and Health: mutual influences 10.50 Andrea MilesiTitle: Analysis of competitiveness of road-rail combined transport 11.30 am Luca Perdoni:Title: Unitary and Non-Unitary Models of Household Decision-Making 12.10 pm Christian RolloTitle: An analysis of the impact…