Shpend Kursani (Leiden University) (webinar)

“The Grotian, Hobbesian, and Bodinian Pathways to Survival: Contested States in the Post-1945 International Order”

Abstract: Why is it that some contested states survive, and others do not? Current literature on contested states provides only partially satisfactory answers to this question. Case-and-area studies do not provide generalized knowledge on contested state survival. Simultaneously, the emerging quantitative literature remains limited in addressing the possible causal complexity that may explain the survival of these entities that emerged in different parts of the world and across various periods after the Second World War. These two research traditions hardly speak to each other, leading to a plethora of micro-level and often only implicit explanations for contested state survival. This study attempts to bridge this gap by conducting a configurational analysis through fsQCA, which allows us to draw valid generalized conclusions by analyzing necessary and sufficient conditions for survival. The analysis employs a time-series dataset with original macro-level measurements of conditions for survival developed for this article. The analysis of the entire universe of 30 cases of contested states suggests that three diverse pathways sufficiently explain all but one case of survival of these entities after WWII.