Raquel Ortega-Argiles (University of Manchester)

The 2020 shock – the Brexit and Covid effects on the UK auto industry

at Campus Luigi Einaudi

Abstract. The automotive industry is an integral part of the UK national economy, with an estimated £78.9 billion in turnover and £15.3 billion in GVA and directly employing over 169,000 people in 2019 (ONS, 2020). Both Covid-19 and the implementation of Brexit have disrupted production, demand and trade for industries throughout the automotive supply chain. In the UK, new car registrations were down -29.3% in 2020 and -28.7% in 2021 compared to 2019, representing the lowest levels since 1984 (SMMT, 2022). This seminar combines the results from several papers that analyse the effects of Brexit and Covid-19 on the UK auto industry using various data and methodologies, from survey data to multi-regional modelling. Our results show an uneven spatial effect across the UK auto clusters, with the West Midlands showing the largest reductions in GVA and employment. Increased economic and social inequality will be expected due to the combined shock as lower- skilled workers are affected by major wage reductions.