Marion Mercier (Université Paris-Dauphine & PSL)

Building Reputation: Proxy Wars and Transnational Identities

Abstract. This paper shows how states strategically boost their reputation for resolve by backing rebellions in foreign countries. The theoretical mechanism of reputation-building yields two unique predictions: (a) a state is more likely to endorse the uprising of a foreign group when it faces a larger audience, resulting in (b) a higher political inclusion of the considered group. Using a comprehensive panel data set of politically relevant ethnic groups across potential target and sponsor states, we rely on transnational co-ethnic ties to explore plausibly exogenous variation in the value of building one’s reputation and rule out alternative mechanisms. We find empirical support for our two predictions, thus corroborating the role of reputation-building in determining sponsor state engagement.

Joint with A. Silve and B. Tremblay-Auger.