Felipe Valencia Caicedo (UBC – Vancouver School of Economics)

The Long Shadow of the Spanish Civil War

Abstract: We study the long-lasting effects of the Spanish Civil War (1936-39), between Nationalists and Republicans, on social capital and political attitudes. To this end, we
use geo-located data on historical mass graves, disaggregated modern-day survey data on trust and electoral results (1977-2019). For identification, we exploit deviations from the initial military plans of attack in an IV framework and a geographical RDD along the frontline of Aragon. Our cultural results reveal a significantly negative relationship between political violence and generalized trust. Politically, we find more support for left-wing parties during the democratic period in places where Republican troops were staged. In terms of mechanisms of persistence—using our own survey and data on street names—we find stronger anti-Franco attitudes and collective memory about the war in formerly Republican areas, as well as more Francoist street names in places that faced more repression historically.