Anatoli Segura (Bank of Italy)

“Firm-bank linkages and optimal policies in a lockdown”

Abstract. We develop a novel framework featuring loss amplification through firm-bank linkages. We use it to study optimal government support in a lockdown that creates heterogeneous revenue losses to firms, which must borrow from banks. Firms’ increase in debt reduces their output due to moral hazard. Banks need safe collateral to raise funds. Without government support, aggregate risk constrains bank lending, amplifying output losses. Optimal support provides sufficient aggregate risk insurance, and is implemented with firm-specific transfers, fairly-priced guarantees on bank debt, and countercyclical firms’ taxation to achieve a fiscal surplus target. Our results shed light on suboptimality dimensions in the actual policy responses.