Alberto Ciancio (University of Lausanne) (webinar)

Abstract: Individuals in low-income settings are often overly pessimistic about survival risk. This paper provides evidence from a randomized experiment that provided mature adults aged 45+ in Malawi with information about population mortality risks. We find a positive treatment effect on expectations about population survival and about HIV transmission risk associated with having multiple sex partners. The latter is driven by the expectations of HIV+ people living longer, making the pool of potential partners riskier. Consistent with the change in perceived HIV transmission risk, treated individuals are less likely to engage in risky sexual practices one year after the intervention.